🇺🇸 Six Months

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California Banning New Gas-Powered Cars, Biden Makes a Move on Student Loan Debt, End of Abundance

US: 'Debt and no degree': Biden cancels as much as $20K in student loan debt (USA Today) + Analysis Shows Student Loan Deal Could Cost $900B, Favor Top Earners (Fox Business)

US: California banning new gas-powered cars, trucks, SUVs beginning in 2035 (Axios)

US: Tuesday brought more evidence abortion rights could help Democrats in November (NPR) + Several states see surge in women registering to vote following Supreme Court abortion ruling (The Hill)

World: Russian rocket strike kills 15 on Ukraine's independence day (Reuters)

World: Israel's premier urges West to reject Iran nuclear deal (ABC News)

Business: Peloton strikes a deal to sell fitness equipment and apparel on Amazon (CNBC)

World: Macron warns 'sacrifices' ahead after 'end of abundance' (France 24)

Entertainment: Sylvester Stallone's wife Jennifer Flavin files for divorce after 25 years (Yahoo!)

WAR

Six Months

Yesterday marked exactly six months since Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia’s decision to invade shocked the world and was almost unanimously condemned on the global stage. What was anticipated to be a quick victory for Russia has dragged on with seemingly no end in sight.

Reporting from the Left: 6 months of war: The realities in Ukraine (NPR)

Reporting from the Right: NATO chief says war in Ukraine is battle of 'attrition,' warns winter 'will be hard' (Fox News)

From The Flag: Here’s how both sides are reacting to the prolonged conflict.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

What Have We Learned?

• We vastly underestimated Ukraine’s underdog status, as its military has managed to persevere against Russian forces.

• Putin is winning the energy battle, and successfully weaponized the world’s dependence on Russia’s energy supplies.

• It’s difficult to predict how this war will end, and it’s also important to acknowledge this war was misunderstood before it even started.

“6 lessons the West has learned in the 6 months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine” Daniel Treisman, CNN Opinion: “Ukraine’s battlefield prowess also illustrates a second lesson – the underappreciated power of the underdog. Time after time, we assume the militarily stronger party will quickly prevail. But that view neglects the importance of external support and morale. When the invasion began, almost everyone thought Kyiv would fall in days. And yet, as we’ve seen in wars from Israel to Vietnam and now Ukraine, underdogs have often performed much better than expected. Oddly enough, Russia, too, enjoys a version of the underdog advantage. Since February, the West has unleashed an unprecedented barrage of sanctions that some thought would crush Russia’s economy. Its medium run prospects do look bleak. But as of now, the ruble has stabilized, the banking system survived, unemployment remains low, and oil revenues are exceeding those of last year. It helps that other countries that also resent Western dominance – from China and India to Turkey and Indonesia – have refused to isolate Putin.”

“The Ukraine War Started 6 Months Ago. We Have 6 Takeaways” Lara Williams, Bloomberg Opinion: “While [Putin] sends bombs to Ukraine, he’s also successfully weaponized energy supplies. The outlook from the energy markets is pretty bleak. Javier Blas writes that, no matter what indicator you use, Putin is winning the energy battle. Russia is still earning hundreds of millions of dollars every day from selling oil to bankroll the invasion. That means it can afford to forgo income from natural gas sales and put even more pressure on Berlin, Paris, and London, which are bracing for massive energy price increases and shortages. The benchmark year-ahead electricity price in Germany has soared over the past six months to an all-time high and shows little sign of slowing. … Kosovo is already imposing power cuts after its distributor ran out of money to import power from Albania. Over the next six months, it’s likely we’ll see more nations following suit — the UK is already planning for blackouts in January.”

One more opinion piece from the Left: Is Russia losing the war with Ukraine? Jeff McCausland, NBC News

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

America Should Reassess Its Support of Ukraine

• US involvement in the war is complex, and some question whether a win or a loss would be preferable for American foreign policy.

• Sending more military equipment to Ukraine is not going to help the situation, as it won’t change Ukraine’s lack of human capital.

• Our unquestioned support of Ukraine should be examined, as we could be aiding corruption instead of saving a democracy.

“The U.S. Is Afraid of Losing in Ukraine—or Winning” Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., Wall Street Journal Opinion: “​​…the US fears being dragged in if it puts its chips on Ukraine and Ukraine starts losing and also if Ukraine starts winning. In fact, almost any victory scenario might require NATO intervention to seal the deal—to draw a red line against a Vladimir Putin desperation play. Lots of things short of victory or defeat also would make US intervention hard to avoid if the US bet big on victory or even if it didn’t. With the degree that the two countries interpenetrate each other’s elite and intelligence establishments, think the Russian military couldn’t get a kill shot on President Volodymyr Zelensky? But Mr. Zelensky is a hero to Western publics and Mr. Putin can’t be sure of the consequences of such an act. Every time his air force drops a bomb, Mr. Putin has to worry about it falling on an orphanage or a visiting celebrity.”

“Reinforcing Failure in Ukraine” Douglas Macgregor, The American Conservative: “In an open letter entitled 'U.S. must arm Ukraine now, before it’s too late' 20 notable American advocates for the war against Russia in Ukraine argue that the conflict has reached a decisive moment. To win, the authors insist, Ukrainian forces need an abundance of [military] equipment… American military and civilian leaders routinely ignore the historical record and its lessons. Most importantly, they ignored the criticality of human capital in uniform that frequently constitutes the margin of victory in war. … Ukraine’s war with Russia is at a decisive point. It is time to end it. Instead, the authors of the letter seek to reinforce failure. They are demanding a deeply flawed strategy for Ukraine that will lead in the best case to Ukraine’s reduction to a shrunken, land-locked state between the Dnieper River and the Polish border.”

One more opinion piece from the Right: As Ukrainians Defect To Russia, We Should Ask Whether Our Billions Are Saving Democracy Or Aiding Corruption Jonathan S. Tobin, The Federalist

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Ukrainians Maintain Resolve, Americans Continue to Stand With Ukraine

Recent polling from a think tank in Kyiv found that 92% of Ukrainians believe they will be victorious. To that end, a plurality of respondents feel that such a victory will take over a year. (Razumkov Center).

American support for Ukraine has also remained strong. Support for Ukrainian refugees to America rose from 74% to 76%. (Chicago Council on Global Affairs)

A majority of Americans (53%) say they believe that paying more for fuel and gas because of sanctions against Russia is worthwhile to defend another sovereign country. (Reuters/Ipsos)

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Moon People, Gastrodiplomacy, Treasure Climber

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Today I Learned that in 2013 a climber found a box full of rubies, sapphires, and emeralds on a remote glacier on Mont Blanc. Authorities determined they were likely from an Indian plane that crashed there in 1966, and they gave the climber half the gems (worth $169,000) to reward his honesty in turning them in.