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🇺🇸 Putin's Power Play

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Putin's Power Play

Late last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to place nuclear weapons in Belarus, one of Russia’s neighbors and a key ally. This represents an intensified nuclear threat, amid Russia’s war with Ukraine, an issue we’ve covered in the past.

From The Flag: The US has said there is no evidence Moscow has followed through with this step. It would mark Russia’s first time deploying nuclear weapons outside its borders since the 1990s. Here’s more from both sides.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Putin Is Raising the Temperature To Distract from His Problems

  • Putin is intentionally raising the threat level by moving tactical nukes closer to NATO allies.

  • By flexing his nuclear treat, Putin is providing the world’s tyrants with a playbook.

  • Putin is doing this as a show of force, but it’s pointless in terms of battlefield strategy.

With plan for tactical nukes in Belarus, Putin is scaring the world to distract from his problems” Jill Dougherty, CNN: “Vladimir Putin says he plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus… not strategic nuclear weapons, those giant intercontinental ballistic missiles that, if fired, could end life on earth. Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller, but powerful, and can be used on the battlefield. Putin has been threatening the possibility of nuclear war for the past year, especially when his military operation in Ukraine is faltering. That could help to explain the context of Putin’s announcement. … Russian forces are bombarding Ukrainian cities from the air, but their ground war is not making much headway. … The Biden administration appears unperturbed by Putin’s announcement. … And yet, moving Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus moves them closer not only to Ukraine but to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all NATO allies. That raises the threat level in Europe, something that Putin intended to do.”

Putin Ups the Ante With Nukes in Belarus” Andreas Kluth, Bloomberg: “In the so-called Budapest Memorandum of 1994, both Ukraine and Belarus — as well as the third former Soviet republic then in possession of nukes, Kazakhstan — agreed to surrender their atomic arsenals in return for security guarantees from Moscow. So much for Russian security guarantees. These days Putin claims Ukraine isn’t a nation at all, and must be subjugated or destroyed. And he regards Belarus as a personal fief destined eventually to be merged into a ‘Union State’ with — obviously — Putin at its head. The lesson for wannabe tyrants and aggressors everywhere — from North Korea to Iran and beyond — is plain. Only nukes can offer them insurance against nuclear blackmail from ruthless aggressors like Putin, and can simultaneously serve as instruments of extortion in their own tool kits. Yes, Putin has just launched a new era of proliferation.”

One more opinion piece from the Left: What Putin’s Latest Nuke Announcement Really Means Fred Kaplan, Slate

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Putin’s Faulty Logic and Shaky Alliances Are On Display

  • Russia has already had nuclear weapons in Belarus for years, though this highlights the country's status as Moscow’s puppet.

  • China showed its unwillingness to rebuke Moscow with this issue, referencing instead a generic statement made in 2022.

  • Russia’s supposed predicate for taking this step (the use of anti-tank rounds with depleted uranium) is something they already do.

Grasping at Nuclear Straws” Edelman & Miller, The Dispatch: “President for life Vladimir Putin’s latest attempt to unsettle the West and hint at nuclear escalation—announcing the intended movement of Russian tactical nuclear warheads into Belarus at the request of his Mussolini-like ally Alexander Lukashenko—is risible. It represents a continuation of Putin’s efforts to manipulate Western fears… It is deeply unserious but nevertheless has gained some resonance in mainstream media and on Twitter. Let’s be clear about this farce. First… Putin’s forces do not need additional lodgments in Belarus to threaten all of Ukraine: They can already do so from their bases inside Russia. Moreover, Russia has long deployed dual capable SS-26 Iskander missiles in Belarus. … Second, an announcement made in Moscow by the Russian president on behalf of his Belarusian puppet hardly constitutes a joint decision. … As the Belarusian democratic opposition has noted, this kabuki dance merely highlights the degree to which Belarus has become a satellite of Moscow.”

China sidesteps Putin's Belarussian nuclear move, proving its false red line” Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner: “China isn't terribly concerned by Russia's announcement that it will deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. Asked about the Russian action on Monday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman referenced a January 2022 statement by Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States that ‘a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.’ … This rhetoric is not a condemnation of Russia's latest nuclear brinkmanship. Russia isn't deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus in preparation for a nuclear strike in or around Ukraine, but rather to fuel Western fears over escalation related to the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is playing this nuclear card because his forces are losing on the battlefield. Via its bland response to Putin's action, however, Beijing is emphasizing only its unwillingness to pressure Moscow.”

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What Is Nuclear Winter, Plus Differing Viewpoints Among Men and Women

An organization working to raise people’s awareness about the risks associated with potential nuclear war found just 3.2% of UK respondents and 7.5% of US respondents have heard of “nuclear winter.”

The concept refers to a prolonged cooling effect that might result from large-scale nuclear war, following widespread firestorms.

Most respondents do not prefer the US launch a retaliatory strike if Russia used nuclear weapons against Ukraine. But men are more likely to support such a strike: 20.7% in the US, and 24.4% in the UK, compared to 14.1% of US women, and 16.1% of UK women (University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk).

Do you anticipate nuclear war happening in your lifetime?

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