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🇺🇸 Putin’s Posturing

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Putin’s Posturing

Credit: World Economic Forum (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there are renewed concerns regarding the possibility of nuclear war. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of additional troops late last month, adding the country has “various means of destruction” at its disposal. At the same time, tension has ratcheted up in recent days between the US and Russia following the apparent sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline.

From The Flag: In early March, we first covered the concept of Russian forces using a nuclear weapon in its conflict with Ukraine. With the war now well into its eighth month, here’s fresh commentary from both sides.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Russia’s Reckless Threats Risk Broader War

  • Putin gave a speech in which he hinted how his nuclear plans could materialize, if the US doesn’t put pressure on Ukraine to enter into a peace agreement.

  • Russia may be gearing up to use so-called tactical nuclear weapons, which would draw a response from NATO, and lead to all-out war.

  • Putin’s nuclear threats signal the beginning of a new era in geopolitics and foreign policy.

“Putin Just Told Us What He’s Planning” Alexander Baunov, New York Times Op-ed: “Vladimir Putin’s speech on Friday, in which he formally proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, was many things: a distorted history lecture, a rather tedious enumeration of supposed Western sins, an airing of grievances and a vaunting of power. … But it was also something else: a plan. … There is a difference between the state of affairs now and the situation in the spring, when everyone was reeling from the invasion of the world’s second-largest army into a sovereign state. … (Putin says) the United States ‘created a precedent’ for the use of nuclear weapons with its bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. It’s not hard to work out the implication. If the West continues to send weapons to Ukraine and refuses to put pressure on Kyiv to agree to a solution that would satisfy Russia, Mr. Putin may resort to the nuclear option.”

“Putin threatens nuclear war. The West must deter disaster.” Editorial Board, Washington Post: “What weapons are we talking about? Not the nuclear warheads carried by continent-spanning intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of city-busting strikes with limited warning, which defined the Cold War. Rather… nonstrategic or tactical nuclear weapons, designed to be launched from ground-based missiles, airplanes or naval vessels. … Mr. Putin might want to play out such a deployment to ratchet up the pressure. But in so doing, he would escalate the risk of error or miscalculation. … A nuclear blast in Ukraine, even low-yield, would kill civilians as well as soldiers and contaminate Russia, Ukraine and beyond. President Biden has properly warned of severe consequences… and retired Gen. David H. Petraeus suggested incautiously on Sunday that NATO should launch a massive conventional — that is, nonnuclear — military response, including sinking Russia’s Black Sea fleet, if the Kremlin used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. This appears to be a recipe for wider war with Russia.”

One more opinion piece from the Left: The Age of Predatory Nuclear-Weapon States Has Arrived Stephen Young, POLITICO Opinion

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Putin Is Desperate, and That’s Dangerous

  • While President Biden is looking like a lame duck president, Putin is fighting for his life, and that makes the nuclear threat scary.

  • The West would be wise to take Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling seriously because he sees this is a historical conflict between good and evil.

  • China is a wildcard amid this nuclear escalation, as Beijing can’t afford to alienate the West entirely and could be getting frustrated with Putin.

“Biden, Putin, and Risk” Daniel Oliver, American Greatness: “The war in Ukraine has become, or always was, Biden vs. Putin. … Biden is old and fading. He’s senile. He may serve out his term… he may not. … Putin’s fate is different. … He can’t afford to lose the war in Ukraine. If he does… he is likely to be demoted to prisoner. Or corpse. For him, the stakes are existential—a word that has lost its meaning in the United States because of its incessant application to climate change. … All of that is obvious and was even before the war in Ukraine began. But the United States and NATO joined the war effort anyway. Now we are told Russia is losing, prompting the question: What comes next? … Who knows? Russia is thought to have hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons ready for use, and knows it is really fighting the United States and NATO, not just their very junior partner, Ukraine.”

“Putin’s Nuclear Threat Is Real” Walter Russell Mead, Wall Street Journal: “As the Biden administration scrambles to manage the most dangerous international confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, it must see the world through Mr. Putin’s eyes. … Like a movie supervillain who can’t resist sharing the details of his plans for world conquest with the captured hero, Mr. Putin makes no secret of his agenda. … Mr. Putin sees global politics today as a struggle between a rapacious and domineering West and the rest of the world bent on resisting our arrogance and exploitation. The West is cynical and hypocritical, and its professed devotion to ‘liberal values’ is a sham. … Making threats about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine advances both Mr. Putin’s goals in Ukraine and his larger campaign against the American-led order. Nuclear weapons, he hopes, could shift the military balance on the ground, and the fear of nuclear war could force Washington to dial back military support for Ukraine.”

One more opinion piece from the Right: Is China about to turn on Russia? Nathan Levine, Unherd

FLAG THIS

2 in 5 Americans Say Russia Will Use Nuclear Weapon

Polling results released last week indicate nearly two in every five Americans (39%) consider it very or somewhat likely Russian forces will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

The numbers hold remarkably steady along party lines, with 9% of Democrats considering it very likely, compared to 8% of Republicans. Similarly, 12% of Democrats say it’s very unlikely, while 10% of Republicans concur (YouGov).

In April, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict was in its opening months, nearly 70% of Americans admitted they worry about a nuclear attack (American Psychological Association).

Will a nuclear weapon be used at some point during the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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