🇺🇸 A Partial Putsch

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June 26, 2023

The Flag

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RUSSIA

A Partial Putsch

Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin inspecting a catering factory

Over the weekend, members of the Wagner group, a private army or mercenary group, launched what appears to have been a coup attempt against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Following negotiations, and the beginning of a march on Moscow, its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to abandon the effort and he fled to Belarus.

From The Flag: Prigozhin is the chief of the Wagner group and tensions had reportedly been rising between him and Putin for months, seemingly due to concerns over the Ukraine war. Prior to his time with Wagner, Prigozhin served as Putin’s catering manager. Here’s more from both sides.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

It Was Almost Curtains for Putin, and It Still Could Be Soon

  • This is the beginning of the end for Putin, because as the people of Russia just saw first hand, the Kremlin has a shaky hold on things.

  • It was certainly a close call for Putin, but he’s still in control — albeit tentatively.

  • While Prigozhin’s climbdown makes him appear weak on the surface, he was this weekend’s decision-maker.

’The People Are Silent’: The Main Reason the Wagner Mutiny Bodes Ill for Putin Leon Aron, POLITICO: "With a deal reportedly worked out by Belorussian president Alexander Lukashenko, the Wagner mutiny appears to be over. ... What Prigozhin called the March for Justice is likely to be remembered not so much for the actual military operation as for what it revealed about Russia. Like a powerful searchlight, the 48-hour rebellion illuminated the murky innards of the Putin regime including the military’s divided allegiances, the seeming hollowness of the people’s support for the regime and, by extension, the regime’s shaky legitimacy. The images — of Putin, a famous night owl, addressing the nation in a dark suit and tie early on a Saturday morning; of mangled Russian helicopters felled by Wagner forces; and of residents of Rostov-on-Don jeering local police after the mutiny was ended — do not bode well for the Kremlin.”

Putin looked into the abyss Saturday — and blinked David Ignatius, Washington Post Opinion: "After vowing revenge for what he called an 'armed mutiny,' he settled for a compromise. The speed with which Putin backed down suggests that his sense of vulnerability might be higher even than analysts believed. Putin might have saved his regime Saturday, but this day will be remembered as part of the unraveling of Russia as a great power — which will be Putin’s true legacy. Putin’s deal with renegade militia leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin is likely to be a momentary truce, at best. The bombastic rebel will head for Belarus, in a deal brokered by his pal President Alexander Lukashenko, in exchange for Putin dropping charges against him and his mutinous soldiers... This was a real coup, until it wasn’t. ... Putin managed to defuse the crisis without any big military confrontation. He has been humbled by a headstrong crony, to be sure, but he’s still in control. It was a close shave, not a decapitation."

One more opinion piece from the Left: Bizarre and chaotic 36 hours in Russia feels like the beginning of the end for Putin Nick Paton Walsh, CNN

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Questions Remain But Putin Is Left Bruised

  • Putin’s hold on power has often been described as tenuous, but now he's badly damaged goods.

  • The strength of Wagner’s forces may have been overstated in reports, and Russian intelligence may have also played a role in the standdown.

  • It remains unclear whether Putin actually fled Moscow while Wagner’s forces advanced — and we may never know.

Wither Putin and Prigozhin’s Coup Attempt? Arnold Steinberg, The American Spectator: "Perhaps some in the Russian command had given Prigozhin mixed messages and then chose not to support (him) ... he counted on support that did not materialize. Why else would he begin a military move toward Moscow, triggering the city to mobilize against a coup? You can bet that Putin will purge any military generals he suspects of questionable loyalties, and he will err on the side of caution, so anyone remotely suspected will be demoted, or in some cases imprisoned or even liquidated as an example to others. We have a game of chicken. Many in the military high command waited for the first domino to fall, but no one wanted to be first, or even in the initial group. Remember, if you start a coup, especially in Russia and against Putin, you must succeed, or you are dead."

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance Ben Riley-Smith, Colin Freeman, James Kilner, The Daily Telegraph: "Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources. It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital. Vladimir Putin will now try to assimilate Wagner Group soldiers into the Russian military and take out its former leaders, according to insights shared with The Telegraph. The analysis offers clues into the mystery of why Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, called off his mutinous march on Moscow on Saturday just hours before reaching the capital. There remains speculation about what formal deal was struck, if any. The Kremlin said on Saturday that Prigozhin would head to Belarus in exchange for a pardon from charges of treason."

One more opinion piece from the Right: Did Putin really flee Moscow as Wagner forces approached? Jazz Shaw, Hot Air

FLAG THIS

If The Reasons Remain, This Will Happen Again

What’s Next? That’s what the world wants to know. This quote stuck out to us while we were combing through countless pieces this weekend, so we’ll leave you with this for now, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov:

“The entire world has seen that Russia is on the brink of the most acute political crisis,” Sergei Markov, a former Putin adviser and a political analyst in Moscow, said on Telegram Sunday. “Yes, the putsch failed now. But putsches have fundamental reasons. And if the reasons remain, a putsch will happen again. And it could be successful.”

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