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Milton’s Massive Surge Looms

Plus, love langugage.

October 10, 2024

The Flag

Good morning and Happy Thursday! Here are the Flag’s Top Five stories that should be on your radar to start the day:

  • US: Tornadoes hit Florida as Hurricane Milton approaches (The Guardian)

  • World: Hezbollah reports clashes with Israeli troops along Lebanese border (Reuters)

  • Business: Honda recalls nearly 1.7M vehicles for steering problem that could lead to crashes (NPR)

  • Technology: Tesla designer Franz von Holzhausen says he’s been designing a robotaxi in his mind for years (TechCrunch)

  • Sports: Jets’ Aaron Rodgers denies rumors he played role in Robert Saleh’s firing (CNN)

BECOME A FLAG BEARER

🎆 What if July 4th was just a party crash? Before the fireworks and BBQs, a lesser-known date holds the key to America’s freedom! Click through to unlock the secrets of July 2nd and discover why we celebrate the way we do.

POWERED BY MASTERWORKS

Instead of trying to predict which party will win, and where to invest afterwards, why not invest in an ‘election-proof’ alternative asset? The sector is currently in a softer cycle, but over the last seven elections (1995-2023) blue-chip contemporary art has outpaced the S&P 500 by 64%, regardless of the victors, and we have conviction it will rebound to these levels long-term.

Now, thanks to Masterworks’ art investing platform, you can easily diversify into this asset class without needing millions or art expertise, alongside 65,000+ other art investors. From their 23 exits so far, Masterworks investors have realized representative annualized net returns like +17.6%, +17.8%, and +21.5% among assets held longer than one year.

Left: We're Still Finding Dead Neighbors in NC. We Need Help, Morgan L. Sykes, The Guardian

Left: Harris Making Same Mistakes She Made in 2019, Alex Shephard, The New Republic

Right: The Vibes Have Run Out For Kamala, W. James Antle III, The American Conservative

Right: 5 Numbers That Will Decide the 2024 Election, Arnon Mishkin, Fox News

CLIMATE

Milton’s Massive Surge Looms

Today’s Top Story: Hurricane Milton was tracked as a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Friday’s Gulf Coast Wednesday night. If the forecasts and storm models hold, it could push an 8 to 12-foot storm surge into Tampa Bay, and residents across several West Coast counties in Florida have been ordered to evacuate.

Reporting from the Left: Hurricane Milton looks like ‘storm of the century’ says Biden as Tampa mayor warns of storm surge (The Guardian)

Reporting from the Right: Hurricane Milton could bring huge economic hit after Helene devastation (Washington Examiner)

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Republicans Politicizing the Disaster

The Top Argument From The Left: The great political battle over Hurricane Milton didn’t wait for the storm to land, Stephen Collinson, CNN: “Trump has repeatedly shown there’s no situation he will not try to leverage for political gain. He seized on Hurricane Helene to bolster his narrative of the Biden-Harris administration as an incompetent rabble, unable to meet the basic needs of the American people. It’s the same way he’s accused Harris of complicity in a national crisis that he claims is marked by crime and rampant immigration and is on a glide path to World War III. Trump’s critique is a caricature. While the country has problems – grocery prices remain stubbornly high and the asylum system is overwhelmed – he’s creating a classic alternative reality for his fans and the conservative media echo chamber. … Trump argues that both Harris and Biden are mentality deficient and not up to the job of president. He’s denied Democratic claims that he’s politicizing hurricane season after rushing to battleground North Carolina to make false claims about the administration’s incompetence. …Trump’s maneuvering is the latest sign of one advantage he holds over Harris despite having a presidential record of his own to defend — as a non-incumbent, he has the luxury of criticizing the administration’s performance while bearing no personal responsibility.”

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

FEMA Confronting Misinformation

The Top Argument From The Right: FEMA Scrambles to Confront Two Storms—and Misinformation, Michelle Hackman, Wall Street Journal: “The Federal Emergency Management Agency faces a herculean task to prepare millions of residents for the catastrophic wind gusts and flooding expected from Hurricane Milton. Evacuation orders in communities near the Florida coastline are so broad that people are caught in hourslong traffic jams trying to escape the impending storm. And FEMA officials are simultaneously working to help thousands of residents across several states dig out from Hurricane Helene. But FEMA’s biggest concern isn’t a lack of money or personnel to address both storms. Instead, federal officials’ efforts to save lives are being complicated by an unusual level of politically charged misinformation, which authorities say risks leading people to disregard evacuation orders or not ask the government for the assistance they need. … The agency says it has been confronting a deluge of false information about the agency’s response to Helene and its preparedness for the coming disaster that risks leading to unnecessary death and suffering. Federal officials say they are accustomed to contending with online scammers trying to make a buck off people’s desperation, but the political nature of the misinformation—amplified at times by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump—is different.”

Honorable Mention #2: FEMA reports it has under 10% of front-line staff available ahead of Hurricane Milton, Aubrie Spadie and Alec Schemmel, Fox News

FLAG THIS

Unseen Mortality from Hurricanes

New research reveals that hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States cause a significant rise in deaths for nearly 15 years after a storm hits, with many of these fatalities going unrecorded in official statistics.

  • Official estimates average 24 direct deaths per tropical storm, typically due to drowning or trauma.

  • New analysis estimates each tropical storm indirectly causes 7,000-11,000 excess deaths.

  • Between 3.6 million and 5.2 million deaths in the U.S. since 1930 are linked to tropical cyclones.

  • Government statistics record only about 10,000 deaths from these storms.

  • More than 3% of U.S. deaths nationwide are related to tropical cyclones.

  • Black individuals are 3 times more likely to die after a hurricane than white individuals.

  • 25% of infant deaths and 15% of deaths among people aged 1 to 44 are related to tropical cyclones.

  • Hurricane impacts on mortality persist for up to 15 years after the event (Stanford).

Is there value in politicizing natural disasters like hurricanes?

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WATERCOOLER

Malala Wins, Seasonal Decor, Speedy Corks

On This Day in 2014, activist Malala Yousafzai, age 17, won the Nobel Peace Prize. A fierce advocate for girls' education, in her native Pakistan and around the world, she is the youngest-ever Nobel laureate.

POWERED BY MASTERWORKS

Over the last seven elections, this asset class has outpaced the S&P 500

Instead of trying to predict which party will win, and where to invest afterwards, why not invest in an ‘election-proof’ alternative asset? The sector is currently in a softer cycle, but over the last seven elections (1995-2023) blue-chip contemporary art has outpaced the S&P 500 by 64%, regardless of the victors, and we have conviction it will rebound to these levels long-term.

Now, thanks to Masterworks’ art investing platform, you can easily diversify into this asset class without needing millions or art expertise, alongside 65,000+ other art investors. From their 23 exits so far, Masterworks investors have realized representative annualized net returns like +17.6%, +17.8%, and +21.5% among assets held longer than one year.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investment involves risk. See Important Reg A Disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investment involves risk. See Important Regulation A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.

The content is not intended to provide legal, tax, or investment advice. No money is being solicited or will be accepted until the offering statement for a particular offering has been qualified by the SEC. Offers may be revoked at any time. Contacting Masterworks involves no commitment or obligation.

“Net Annualized Return” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and expenses, calculated from the offering closing date to the date the sale is consummated. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold and past performance is not indicative of future results. For additional information regarding the calculation of IRR for a particular investment in an artwork that has been sold, a reconciliation will be filed as an exhibit to Form 1-U and will be available on the SEC’s website. Masterworks has realized illustrative annualized net returns of 17.6% (1067 days held), 17.8% (672 days held), and 21.5% (638 days held) on 13 works held longer than one year (not inclusive of works held less than one year and unsold works).

Contemporary art data based on repeat-sales index of historical Post-War & Contemporary Art market prices from 1995 to 2023, developed by Masterworks. There are significant limitations to comparative asset class data. Indices are unmanaged and a Masterworks investor cannot invest directly in an index.

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