🇺🇸 No Peak

Plus, the “five things” method.

February 16, 2023

The Flag

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Good morning, and happy Thursday! This mom of 4, who started medical school in her 40s, says it’s never too late to follow dreams. 

Plus, if you’re feeling stressed out, try the “five things” method to help calm you down.

Also, today’s partner, Noom, allows you to better understand yourself, your brain, and the science of choice. Join Noom and change your life today.

FLAG POLLS

📉 Wednesday, February 15: President Biden Job Approval: Approve 45, Disapprove 53 (Rasmussen Reports)

🐘 Thursday, February 9: Nevada: Trump vs. Biden: Trump 42, Biden 40 (Nevada Independent)

🐘 Thursday, February 9: Nevada: DeSantis vs. Biden: DeSantis 42, Biden 36 (Nevada Independent)

🐘 Wednesday, February 8: 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trump 42, DeSantis 32, Pence 8, Haley 5, Cruz 3, Rubio 3, Pompeo, T. Scott, Noem, Ryan

TRENDING

Left: The Heart of Biden's Middle-Out Economic Agenda Nick Hanauer, American Prospect

Right: Elites Want To Use AI To Censor Political Opponents Jonathan Turley, New York Post

Right: James Clapper Can't Stop Lying David Harsanyi, The Federalist

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QUICK CLICKS

SBF Super Bowl Busted, Buttigieg Casts Blame, CDC Talks Changes

US: Sam Bankman-Fried figured out how to secretly watch the Super Bowl — and got hit with new bail restrictions (NY Post)

Economy: US will default this summer unless Congress raises debt limit, CBO warns (CNBC)

US: Rubio, Vance question Buttigieg on freight rail oversight in wake of Ohio train derailment (The Hill)

Pandemic: Twitter erupts after CDC Director Walensky tells Congress masking guidance 'doesn't really change with time' (Fox News)

Business: Digital video viewing to top traditional TV in US: forecast (AFP)

Hollywood: Raquel Welch Dies: ‘Fantastic Voyage’, ‘One Million Years B.C.’ & ‘Myra Breckinridge’ Star Was 82 (Deadline)

US: Nikki Haley kicked off 2024 presidential campaign with calls for a new generation of leadership (CNN)

US: Man lunges at Buffalo gunman during sentencing hearing (Yahoo News)

POLITICS

No Peak

January’s inflation print came in hotter than expected earlier this week, with prices rising 0.5% from December. That’s the highest monthly increase since October. On an annual basis, prices rose 6.4%, down 0.1% from December.

From the Flag: Clearly, inflation continues to impact Americans, as the Federal Reserve attempts to tamp down prices through rate hikes. Earlier this month, the central bank raised rates for the eighth consecutive time. Here’s more from both sides on what this means for consumers and the economy as a whole.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Inflation Is Stubborn, but Economy Shows Positive Signs, Too

  • Making predictions about the economy is always challenging, but especially right now – even key indicators are murky.

  • The Federal Reserve misunderstood what happened with the job market during the pandemic, leading to poor policy.

  • Inflation remains high, but shows signs of easing, and the economy is experiencing its fastest jobs recovery in 30 years.

“Don't believe what anyone says about the economy. Including Me.” Catherine Rampell, Washington Post Opinion: “It’s difficult to make predictions, the saying goes, especially about the future. But right now it’s tough to say exactly what is happening even in the present. Key economic metrics are pointing in all different directions. Hiring in January was crazy strong (maybe because the job market is hot — maybe because the weather has been unseasonably hot, too). Services prices and overall output are growing quickly, also usually a sign of a booming economy. Other signs are less clear. The manufacturing industry is adding jobs, even though, by some measures, it looks like it’s in recession. Shipping firms, often a bellwether for a turn in the economy, are making big profits but expressing pessimism. So are executives in other industries that are nonetheless in the black. If you are confused about the economy, take comfort. Things genuinely are confusing.”

“This Inflation Report Will Lead to Bad Fed Decisions” Karl W. Smith, Bloomberg Opinion: “The sense is… persistent inflation pressures may prod the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even higher and keep them there longer than markets expect. The way Fed policymakers are thinking about inflation is that it all emanates from the labor market, which they describe as too hot for their liking. … What they didn’t, and probably couldn’t, account for was how labor market matching would be affected by the unprecedented surge in household savings (during the pandemic). … Economist Simon Mongey suggest that households used the extraordinary savings buffer to help them find better employment rather than settling for the first job that came along. … And yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently pointed out how the natural rate of unemployment had moved up materially, a view that helps explains why the central bank has been so aggressive in raising rates.”

One more opinion piece from the Left: US inflation and jobs reports show fastest recovery in 30 years under Biden Cecilia Rouse, CNBC Opinion

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

With the Economy in Peril, Why Did Biden Take a Victory Lap?

  • Concerns over increasing the money supply proved true, but now economists worry a recession could be on the way.

  • Embarrassingly, President Biden boasted of his administration’s progress on inflation – only to have data dispute that days later.

  • While the Federal Reserve attempts to avoid a recession, don’t forget the Biden administration called inflation “transitory” in 2021.

“Inflation Proves Stubborn in January” Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal: “Inflation has fallen from its monthly heights last year, but it’s a long way from beaten. … (This) suggests that the Federal Reserve has been right in saying that it has more work to do. … Strip out food and energy, and so-called ‘core’ prices were up 5.6% over 12 months, which is still too high. One underlying debate concerns the role of the money supply in inflation. Monetarists like our contributors Steve Hanke and John Greenwood were right in predicting that the peak increase in the money supply (M2) of more than 77% at a three-month rate in 2020 would lead to higher prices with a lag. But now they’re saying that the sharp decline in the money supply that began last year will lead to rapid disinflation in the coming months and perhaps a recession.”

“Terrible New Inflation Numbers Nullify Biden’s State of the Union Boasts” Jim Geraghty, National Review: “President Biden, one week ago, in his State of the Union Address: ‘We have more to do, but here at home, inflation is coming down. … Inflation has fallen every month for the last six months while take home pay has gone up.’ … Yeesh. Seven days after Biden boasted that inflation, food, and gas prices are falling and that take-home pay is rising, new numbers arrive showing that inflation, food, and energy prices are jumping back up again, and real take-home pay is falling. … As I mention more and more frequently, this administration has many bad habits, but one of the worst is its inclination to spike the football in victory at any glimpse of good news, only to be quickly overtaken by bad news.”

One more opinion piece from the Right: Bidenflation is not going away Editorial Board, Washington Examiner

FLAG THIS

Bearish on the Stock Market, Plus Job Market Concerns

Polling completed earlier this month shows Americans are not confident when it comes to the stock market and state of inflation.

A record-high 48% of respondents expect the stock market to decline during the first half of 2023.

3 in 4 expect the Fed will continue to hike rates this year, which is more or less unchanged from last year.

Expectations for rising inflation in the year’s first half fell 12% from this time in 2022, but more Americans are worried about the job market. 4 in 10 expect unemployment to either “go up a lot or a little” (Gallup).

Will inflation be under control by the second half of 2023?

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FLAG FINDS

Weight Loss Wins, Broken Language Barriers, Stale News Sacked

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🏈 Is it just us or was every Super Bowl thinkpiece written by the same person? Sports media needs a fresh perspective, and now, it’s got one: the Gist. This newsletter provides all the sports news you need, reported on by an expert team of writers, who happen to be women. They put a perfect spiral on stale sports narratives, keeping your sports news inclusive, relevant, and entertaining. So what are you waiting for? Get the GIST.

WATERCOOLER

First 911 Call Made, Bring Back Jane Fonda’s Workouts, Ancient Bowel Movements

February 16, 1968 sees the first official 911 call placed in the US. Now known as the first course of action in the event of emergency by the vast majority of Americans, 911 is a relatively recent invention and was still not standard across the United States for many years after its adoption by Congress.

Today I Learned people were drinking beer and eating blue cheese over 2,000 years ago according to studies of ancient bowel movements discovered in caves.

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