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🇺🇸 No New High for CPI

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ECONOMY

No New High for CPI

The July CPI checked in at 8.5% last week, tracking the year-over-year rise in prices for a basket of goods. This key measure of inflation is down from an annualized 9.1% in June, as the Federal Reserve has enacted a series of rate hikes in a bid to cool off the economy.

News Coverage from the Right: Inflation hits Americans' grocery bills as food prices accelerate (Fox Business)

From The Flag: Last month we covered both sides’ reactions to the June CPI. The financial impact of inflation has been a major talking point on both Wall Street and Main Street throughout 2022. Here’s the latest commentary.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Inflation May Have Peaked, Pending Certain Outside Factors

  • This looks like it could mark the beginning of the end for sky high inflation, as Republicans fail to understand month-over-month changes to the CPI as opposed to the annualized number.

  • Republicans are silly to react with outrage to Biden’s claim of 0% inflation because it’s plainly true on a month-over-month basis.

  • The latest CPI data is very encouraging as the worst of inflation should be behind us, unless a deadlier coronavirus variant emerges or the war in Ukraine escalates.

“Finally, Some Good News on Inflation” Paul Krugman, New York Times Opinion: “This is not the end of inflation. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. … First, there is absolutely no reason to question the numbers. There were many advance indications that this report, and probably the next few reports, would show a sharp drop in inflation. … It’s not just falling gasoline prices; business surveys point to declining inflation and supply chain problems are easing. … Second, the enraged reaction of Republicans to the report came as something of a surprise, at least to me — not that it happened, but the form their outrage took. I expected them to accuse the Biden administration of cooking the books. Instead, most of the flailing seemed to involve a failure to understand the difference between monthly and annual numbers.”

“Republicans Are Outraged at Joe Biden for Accurately Describing the Economy” Jordan Weissmann, Slate: “While today’s inflation report was certainly welcome news… month-to-month data can be erratic … Nonetheless, everything Biden said was strictly accurate. Overall prices did not rise in July, meaning that inflation for the month was zero. Republicans nonetheless erupted in furor and mockery. … since inflation is still up 8.5 percent over the past 12 months. … When journalists widely pointed out that what Biden said was basically accurate, conservatives promptly accused them of being patsies for the administration. … This is all predictable enough… but silly. It makes sense to cite the rate of inflation from the past 12 months when you want to talk about the cost of living versus a year before, which is what most families care about. But it’s totally acceptable to cite the one-month change in prices if you want to convey how much inflation is speeding up or slowing down in real time.”

One more opinion piece from the Left: There's Finally Some Encouraging News on Inflation John Cassidy, The New Yorker

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

Gas Prices Did Moderate, But Inflation Is Still Hot Year-Over-Year

  • While President Biden is celebrating 0% inflation month-over-month, it mostly happened because gasoline prices fell slightly from historic highs.

  • The White House is gaslighting the American public concerning inflation in the same way it has about the current recession.

  • An honest look at the economic numbers under President Biden suggests inflation is much higher than the CPI would suggest.

“Joe Biden Touts 'Zero Percent' Inflation” Allysia Finley, Wall Street Journal Opinion: “I think you still have to keep in mind that inflation or the CPI is still up 8.5% year-over-year. The main reason that the overall CPI went down or has been flat was because of declining energy prices, particularly gasoline and as well as natural gas, which had really spiked during the spring in part due to the war in Ukraine. But gasoline and natural gas prices have both fallen in part because of concerns that the economy is slowing down, both the US and the global economy, and the demand is declining. So you've seen oil and gas prices actually moderate some. And that was really the main contributor to the flat CPI. … So I think this is a one-month respite from skyrocketing prices, but I don't think we've conquered inflation as Joe Biden seems to suggest.”

“Biden Can't Spin the Stagflation Economy” Daniel Flynn, The American Spectator: “Alongside gasoline, which does experience a downward price trend since June, the supermarket remains one of the big two barometers of inflation for ordinary Americans, who do not read monthly BLS reports but instead consult the daily report displayed at gas station digital flip signs and at supermarket cash registers. From the end of June to the end of July, inflation did remain stagnant. But to parse the report in such a way when year-over-year inflation for the last several months registers at a higher figure than any seen in the last four decades feels knavish. After this White House redefined a recession as something decided upon in secret by eight professors in Cambridge, Massachusetts, instead of two straight quarters of economic contraction (unfortunate circumstances forced the Biden administration to alter reality), the verbal legerdemain on inflation should not surprise.”

One more opinion piece from the Right: Americans Make Lifestyle Sacrifices As Bidenflation Holds At 12.6% Editorial Board, TIPP Insights

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Confidence in the Central Bank’s Bid for Deflation

As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten its monetary policy in a bid to slow down price increases, there’s an indication that members of the public feel good about the process.

The New York Fed released its inflation expectations survey last week, with the short and medium term outlook for inflation hitting its lowest level since February 2022 and April 2021, respectively.

Flag Poll: Do you think inflation will continue to slow over the coming months?

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