🇺🇸 The Leak

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🐘 Thursday, April 13, Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary: Trump 40, DeSantis 34, Pence 6, Haley 4, Sununu 2, Scott 0, Pompeo 0 (Franklin & Marshall)

🐘 Wednesday, April 12, South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary: Trump 41, DeSantis 20, Haley 18, Scott 7, Pence 5, Pompeo 2, Sununu 1, Hutchinson 0, Youngkin 0 (Winthrop)

🐘 Wednesday, April 12, Oklahoma Republican Presidential Primary: Trump 38, DeSantis 29, Haley 6, Pence 6, Cruz 4, Pompeo 2 (CHS & Associates)

🐘 Wednesday, April 12, Massachusetts Republican Presidential Primary: Trump 59, DeSantis 18, Pence 10, Haley 4, Cheney 3, Scott 1, Sununu 0 (Mass Amherst)

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Right: The Depopulation Bomb Joel Kotkin, Spiked

Right: Make Americans Debate Again Nick Gillespie, Reason

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Leak

Yesterday, 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was arrested for allegedly leaking US intelligence documents. These documents have been posted on social media sites like Twitter and Telegram. The Pentagon has acknowledged that some of these are authentic intelligence assessments, but say some of them appear to be doctored.

From The Flag: Documents first appeared on the social media platform Discord in March. The bulk of the information pertains to the war between Ukraine and Russia, but also involves US allies and other military secrets. Here’s more from both sides.

LEFT-LEANING SENTIMENT

This Documents Leak Has Major Implications for Russia-Ukraine War

  • Unlike past leaks of government documents, these include fresh data that hints at future operations involving Ukraine.

  • The documents reveal US officials feel the Russia-Ukraine war is headed toward a stalemate.

  • Certain methods and intelligence practices have been exposed, which may make it harder to spy on Russia in the future.

“How the Latest Leaked Documents Are Different From Past Breaches” David E. Sanger, New York Times: “When WikiLeaks spilled a huge trove of State Department cables 13 years ago, it gave the world a sense of what American diplomats do each day… When Edward Snowden swept up the National Security Agency’s secrets three years later, Americans suddenly discovered the scope of how the digital age had ushered in a remarkable new era of surveillance… The cache of 100 or so newly leaked briefing slides of operational data on the war in Ukraine is distinctly different. … Some of the most sensitive material — maps of Ukrainian air defenses and a deep dive into South Korea’s secret plans to deliver 330,000 rounds of much-needed ammunition… appear to be barely 40 days old. It is the freshness… and the hints they hold for operations to come, that make these disclosures particularly damaging, administration officials say.”

“The leaked documents on the Ukraine war are chilling” David Ignatius, Washington Post Opinion: “Were these documents disclosed by the Russians to expose Ukrainian weakness and shatter morale, as seems most likely to the analysts I contacted? Or were they actually disseminated by Ukraine, as some Russian bloggers appear to believe, in a plot to make the Kremlin think that Ukraine is weak and thereby disguise its true strengths in advance of a planned spring counteroffensive? Or, perhaps, were they leaked by a disgruntled American with a hidden motive? … journalists have been hearing privately for many months from top US officials that they believe this conflict is at a deadly impasse, with heavy casualties depleting both sides. The documents provide a more explicit snapshot. A Feb. 23 analysis described a ‘grinding campaign of attrition… likely heading toward a stalemate.’ Ukraine is betting that a spring counteroffensive can reverse these trends. The administration backs that gamble, too.”

One more opinion piece from the Left: The ongoing scandal over leaked US intel documents, explained Jonathan Guyer, Vox

RIGHT-LEANING SENTIMENT

With Ukraine’s War Effort Lagging Behind, More Are Pushing for Settlement

  • It now seems as though the world’s governments are hoping for a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia.

  • According to the leaked documents, Ukraine’s war effort is falling “well short” of its goals.

  • The leak is a major concern because it simultaneously puts Ukraine’s survival and America’s global standing at risk.

“The Secret Documents Warning Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Will Likely Stall” Jim Geraghty, National Review: “This is bad. It is bad that this assessment leaked; it is bad that this assessment of Ukraine’s abilities in the spring offensive are so modest or grim; it is bad that apparently lots of foreign-policy experts have doubts about the administration’s approach but are afraid to say so publicly; and it is bad that Biden’s public assessment of the war in Ukraine is the same rosy-eyed, unrealistic optimism that characterized his assessment of Afghanistan, inflation, migrants crossing the border, and the Chinese spy balloon. The president is always telling us that things are going great and that we have nothing to worry about, and a little later, we learn that the truth is the opposite. … Publicly, many nations of the world are denouncing the Russian invasion. Secretly, apparently a lot of regimes are eager to cut a deal with Putin.”

“When national security leaks were patriotic” Byron York, Washington Examiner Opinion: “National security circles in Washington are aghast at a new leak of classified US military documents. Apparently originating in the Pentagon, the leak is said to include around 100 documents and focuses mostly on US assistance to Ukraine and American assessments of Ukraine's defense against the Russian invasion. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the leaked material comes from a top-secret document in which US intelligence concluded in February that Ukraine's military effort is falling ‘well short’ of its goals. … ‘a marked departure from the Biden administration's public statements about the vitality of Ukraine's military’ … Is that the point of the entire leak? To create pressure and momentum for a negotiated settlement? Perhaps it is. … an account in POLITICO quoted two anonymous DOD officials expressing deep anger about the leak. ‘This is a massive betrayal,’ one said. ‘I'm sick to my stomach,’ the other said.”

One more opinion piece from the Right: What most analysts are still missing in leaked Pentagon documents case Judith Miller, Fox News

FLAG THIS

How US Opinion Has Changed Over Time

Polling data shows half of all US adults saw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a major threat to American interests in March 2022, but as of January that number had fallen to 35%.

The number saying it’s a major threat declined most significantly among Republicans, falling from 51% to 29% over the same time period. But the number has slipped with Democrats as well.

January's polling found 4 in 10 Republicans think the US is providing too much support to Ukraine. At the start of the war, just 9% agreed with that statement.

Do you approve of the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Ukraine?

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FLAG FINDS

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WATERCOOLER

Lincoln Shot, Spite Fence, Tetris Bromance

President Lincoln and Booth are highlighted at Lincoln's second inauguration.

President Abraham Lincoln is shot in the head at Ford’s Theatre in Washington, D.C. on April 14, 1865. The assassin, actor John Wilkes Booth, shouted, “Sic semper tyrannis! (Ever thus to tyrants!) The South is avenged,” as he jumped onto the stage and fled on horseback. Lincoln died the next morning.

Today I Learned that if South Korea enters a state of war, its army becomes subordinated to a US Army general from the Combined Forces Command, not the President or another Korean.

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