Who Will Win the House in the 2022 Mid-Term Elections?

The Flag Staff Contributor
Who Will Win the House in the 2022 Mid-Term Elections?
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We are 580 days away from the 2022 Midterm elections and both sides are already making early predictions about the outcome. Here’s what they think is in store. To have stories like this and more delivered directly to your inbox, be sure to sign up for our newsletter. 

Top Stories: 2022 Mid-Term Elections


We are 580 days away from the 2022 Midterm elections. Next year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs. This will be the first election impacted by the redistricting that will follow the 2020 United States census. Here’s what both sides are saying about who might win the House:

On The Right


The right is quite optimistic about their chances of winning the House in 2022.

David Catron writes in The American Spectator that the “White House is trying to redefine the term “bipartisan” and, “even if this Orwellian strategy succeeds, the Democrats face a uniquely unfavorable political landscape” next year. He points out that, “instead of gaining 10 to 15 seats, as many “experts” predicted,” Democrats experienced “a double-digit loss” in 2020 House races. Moreover, “the president’s party almost always loses a significant number of House seats during the first midterm of his tenure” and “this year they will be forced to compete on a playing field tilted heavily against them by reapportionment and a redistricting process dominated by Republican state legislatures.” Keep reading: Biden’s Bipartisanship Lie Will Cost Dems the House.

On The Left


Democrats anticipate that Republicans will paint them as extremists, and they are prepared to counter that messaging in swing district elections.

In USA Today, seven former Democrat Congressional representatives and candidates in swing districts write about the Democrat strategy in 2022. They claim that “Republicans intend to lie about Democrats” rather than “retake the House in 2022 on the strength of their ideas.” They head off GOP criticism by calling themselves “proud capitalists” who “know that socialism has been a failure everywhere it has been tried.” While they also “agree that climate change is an existential crisis,” they “don’t believe that banning hydraulic fracturing is the quickest, most equitable route to a clean energy future.” In short, these swing-state Democrats can “largely agree on broad Democratic goals” while still having “principled disagreements on some big policies.” To defeat these attacks from the right, swing-state Democrats are starting an organization called Shield PAC in order to ensure that Republicans’ “cynical strategy doesn’t take a toll again in 2022.” Keep reading: GOP Lies Beat Us. House Dems Will Be Ready in 2022

Flag This: 2022 Midterm Elections


Kyle Kondik at Sabato’s Crystal Ball looks back at 659 House elections featuring presidential party incumbents and finds that, on average, their margin fell by 12% from the presidential election year to the midterm election. For perspective, Kondik highlights that “44 House Democrats won by 12 points or fewer in 2020.” Democrats sense some trouble in 2022 and are proactively trying to head off GOP attacks. 

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